Poisson Calculator
The Poisson distribution estimates how often something that averages a few times per game happens 0, 1, 2, or more times. Enter how many goals you expect each team to score, and this calculator prices the result, totals, exact scores, and more as fair odds you can compare with sportsbook lines. It suits low-scoring sports like soccer and hockey.
Match Result
Home Win
+115
46.4%
Draw
+288
25.8%
Away Win
+260
27.8%
Total Goals Over/Under
| Line | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 92.6% | 73.3% | 48.2% | 26.4% | 12.3% |
| Under | 7.4% | 26.7% | 51.8% | 73.6% | 87.7% |
Correct Score
Home goals down the side, away goals across the top. Green is a home win, yellow a draw, red an away win.
| Home \ Away | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.1% | 12.3% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Both Teams to Score
| Yes | No |
|---|---|
| 51.8% | 48.2% |
Clean Sheet
| Team | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Away | 22.3% | 77.7% |
Assumes each team's goals are independent. Real matches tend to have slightly more draws than the Poisson model predicts, so treat these as estimates.
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